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NEW POLLS: FL Voters Back Citizenship

May 8, 2013| By: chris@projectnewamerica.com

Voters statewide in Florida and in key swing congressional districts are strongly supportive of immigration reform and are more likely to support a political candidate who supports a pathway to citizenship, findings from five new polls show.

Project New America partnered with Public Policy Polling to conduct a statewide survey in Florida from April 26-29 while simultaneously running the same survey in the districts of key Representatives: Daniel Webster FL-10, Gus Bilirakis FL-12, Dennis Ross FL-15 and Tom Rooney FL-17.

PNA President Jill Hanauer: "These polls make it clear that Florida voters want immigration reform to be passed in 2013 and that solid majorities favor a pathway to citizenship. There will be electoral consequences for politicians who vote the wrong way on an immigration deal."

Voters Across the Board Overwhelmingly Support Background Checks

Apr 17, 2013| By: chris@projectnewamerica.com

Voters in Arkansas, Illinois, Maine, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Ohio are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor of requiring background checks at gun shows, according to comprehensive new polls from Project New America (PNA).

This data shows there is also a break between GOP voters and the party’s political leadership on this issue. In all seven states, majorities of GOP voters favor background checks. And background checks are supported by voters who view the NRA favorably in every state. “We’ve seen strong nationwide numbers on background checks for years. This data shows that in key Senate swing states, voters overwhelmingly support expanding background checks,” said PNA President Jill Hanauer. "We are seeing Washington DC finally catching up with the American public on the issue of background checks."

Between Thursday and Sunday, PNA interviewed over 5,000 Americans in some of the most conservative, rural states with high rates of gun ownership and US Senators from both parties that have strong ratings from the NRA. After recent announcements of support from Senators Susan Collins (R-ME) and Kay Hagan (D-NC), this data suggests that voters in these states agree.

Working with noted pollster Anzalone Grove Liszt Research, PNA surveyed two of the key Democratic Senate seats up in 2014 – Arkansas and North Carolina. PNA also surveyed five of the moderate Republican senate seats in Illinois, Maine, New Hampshire, Nevada, and Ohio with Public Policy Polling.

This set of polls represents the largest dataset of opinion research in these key Senate seats – and clear evidence that the new bipartisan agreement for background checks has strong public support.

Interesting State Datapoints - More Available In State Memos:

In North Carolina, 69% of Independent voters favor expanding checks. And 48% are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor, compared to only 25% less likely to support.

In Maine, 90% of women support background checks. And 76% are more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor, compared to only 14% less likely.

In Arkansas, 62% of GOP voters favor background checks with even higher support from Democrats and Independents. And 45% of GOP voters say they would be more likely to vote for their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor while only 35% say less likely.

In Ohio, 85% of African Americans, 66% of Hispanics and 57% of white voters favor background checks. All three groups are 60% or more likely to support their US Senator if their Senator votes in favor.

David Winkler, PNA’s Research Director, said: “Looking to 2014 and beyond, the GOP leadership should note that key voters they need to win strongly support this measure – especially women, independents and even gun owners.”

“There is no grey area here. Voters in these states overwhelmingly support strengthening background checks at gun shows and want their senators to vote to expand them. Regardless of party, or whether they own a gun or not, these voters support expanding background checks,” said pollster John Anzalone.

State Poll Methodology is attached to each memo.
Project New America (PNA) is a private company that provides candidates, advocacy organizations, and civic engagement stakeholders the tools and strategies to understand and communicate with rapidly changing America.

Anzalone Liszt Grove Research is widely recognized as one of the premier survey research firms in the country. It polled in nine states for the Obama campaign, including the critical states of Florida, Nevada, North Carolina and Virginia. It also has had a depth of success electing Democrats in tough states and districts, winning more Republican-held seats at the federal level over the past four cycles than any other polling firm. And New York Times columnist and polling guru, Nate Silver, recently dubbed it one of the three most accurate pollsters in America.

Over the last 5 years, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has built a reputation as one of the most accurate polling companies in the country. In 2012 it was the only public polling company to correctly predict the winner of every swing state in the Presidential race, and a Fordham University study ranked it as having the most accurate national polling as well. In 2010 PPP was the first polling company to pick up on the shocking victories of Scott Brown in the Massachusetts Senate race and Christine O’Donnell in the Delaware Republican Senate primary, and in 2008 the Wall Street Journal ranked PPP as one of the two most accurate swing state polling companies in the country.

CO Hispanic Voters Don't Support a Cuts-Only Deficit Approach

Mar 4, 2013| By: PNA Staff

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PNA’s recent survey of Colorado voters shows strong opposition to cuts to Social Security and Medicare and strong preferences for Democratic solutions to balancing the federal budget; these sentiments are particularly strong among Hispanic voters.

Marco Rubio's Choice: The Face of the New GOP or the Agenda of the Past

Feb 25, 2013| By: PNA Staff

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PNA President Jill Hanauer writes about what new Florida poll results mean for GOP leaders like Sen. Marco Rubio.

New Poll: Florida doesn't drink Rubio's Kool Aid

Feb 12, 2013| By: PNA Staff

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Anzalone Liszt Grove Research is a polling firm with extensive experience polling Florida voters, including polling the state for President Obama in both 2008 and 2012. This poll of 800 Florida registered voters was conducted for Project New America between January 30 and February 6, 2013, with a mixture of landline and cell phone dialing. The survey used bi-lingual dialers and was offered in both English and Spanish. It has a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

Project New America is a private company that provides cutting edge tools to understand and communicate with a rapidly changing America. PNA develops, conducts, aggregates, and disseminates research, messaging and on-going strategic guidance with the nation's leading progressive stakeholders.

New Poll Results - CO Voters Support Pathway to Citizenship

Feb 1, 2013| By: PNA Staff

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Project New America and Keating Research recently completed a statewide live operator telephone survey of Colorado voters.

Voters were offered the option to chose between two opposing statements on immigration: one in support of reform that includes a pathway to citizenship and the other which opposes reform, amnesty and citizenship.

It's clear that CO voters will strongly support immigration solutions that include a pathway to citizenship, such as the recent immigration reform proposals from President Barack Obama and the bipartisan Senate group including Colorado Senator Michael Bennet.

Key findings include:

66% of voters agree that "there should be a pathway for immigrants who are here without legal status to earn citizenship if they are of good character, pay taxes, and are committed to becoming fully participating members of our society."

Support crosses party lines with 88% of Democrats, 67% of unaffiliated voters, and 44% of Republicans agreeing.
White (63%) and Hispanic (88%) voters support the reform statement.

CO Poll Results - Voters Support Reproductive Health Care

Jan 28, 2013| CO Poll Results Voters Support Reproductive Health Care - January 2013

Project New America and Keating Research recently completed a statewide live operator telephone survey of Colorado voters. Two questions revealed important attitudes about reproductive health.

Key findings include:

When asked which statement about abortion they agreed with more, 62% of voters agree that "A woman should be allowed to have an abortion based on her personal values and her doctor's advice."

An additional 27% believe abortion is acceptable with heavy restrictions or in cases of rape or incest
Only 9% believe that abortion should be illegal in all cases

When asked whether the health of a woman or the rights of a fetus should be given more weight, fully 76% of voters answered the health of the woman and only 7% said the rights of a fetus, with 7% saying both were equal and 10% unsure.

Support for the first statement was particularly strong among Democrats (84%), unaffiliated voters overall (81%) and unaffiliated women (83%).
Overall 76% of men and 76% of women supported that statement

Download the full results.

CO Poll Results - Voters Back Stronger Gun Laws

Jan 23, 2013| By: PNA Staff

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PNA Colorado Gun Laws Polling Full Memo January 2013

Project New America and Keating Research recently completed a statewide live operator telephone survey of Colorado voters. We asked several questions to measure voter opinions about gun laws.

Key findings include:

On the general question of whether voters want stricter gun laws,
55% are in favor and only 40% opposed.

Support crosses party lines with a majority of Democrats (75%) and unaffiliated voters (59%) and a third of all Republican voters favoring stricter gun laws.

Support is extremely high in the key suburban swing counties (Adams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Douglas, and Jefferson) - 59% of voters favor stricter gun laws. Importantly, 68% of women and 67% of unaffiliated voters in those counties are in favor of stricter laws.

Voters are even more favorable towards specific policies currently being discussed in Colorado:

95% favor preventing people with serious mental health problems from owning a gun.
80% favor requiring all private gun sales to go through a licensed dealer, and be subject to a background check
65% favor prohibiting guns on college campuses
61% favor banning high-capacity ammunition clips and assault rifles

These survey results confirm that large majorities of the state's voters are in agreement with recent statements on gun violence by Colorado Governor Hickenlooper and Senators Mark Udall and Michael Bennet.

Governor Hickenlooper's State of the State address, January 10th, 2013

"Our record of addressing difficult problems together makes it possible to discuss gun violence and mental health. There are no easy solutions. Some point to guns, others to a violent culture. Still others believe that the line between community security and individual freedom must be re-drawn. We shouldn't be restrained from discussing any of these issues. Our democracy demands this type of debate. Let me prime the pump: Why not have universal background checks for all gun sales? After Columbine, Colorado voters insisted that gun show sales be regulated, and launched an aggressive effort to prevent school bullying. We have shown in Colorado that we can learn from tragedy and make changes. Surely, Second Amendment advocates and gun control supporters can find common ground in support of this proposition: Let's examine our laws and make the changes needed to keep guns out of the hands of dangerous people. It's not enough to prevent dangerous people from getting weapons."

Senator Mark Udall, January 16th, 2013

"I wish I could say that enforcement of our current laws has been sufficient at keeping our children safe, but that simply is not the case. For example, while Colorado has a storied tradition of gun ownership, I am not certain that owning high-capacity ammunition clips or weapons made for the battlefield are necessarily part of that heritage. I will continue to work with my colleagues and Coloradans - of all political stripes - to discuss concrete steps we can take to help prevent dangerous guns from falling into the wrong hands."

Senator Michael Bennet, December 19th, 2012

"The shooters in Aurora and Newtown should not have had access to the guns or magazines they used. I believe a combination of improved access to mental health services, restrictions on certain weapons intended for the battlefield, and elimination of the gun show loophole are sensible steps that can reduce our children's risk. In Colorado, we support the 2nd Amendment right to bear arms, we support the ability of people to hunt and recreate and to protect their families and homes, and we want to keep the wrong weapons out of the hands of the wrong people."

How Technology Changed Public Opinion Research in 2012

Nov 29, 2012| By: PNA Staff

Among the many takeaways from the 2012 election cycle is that public opinion research must evolve with the American electorate. As more Americans use the Internet and mobile devices as part of their daily lives, harnessing these technologies is increasingly among the best ways to get an accurate read on voters' complex attitudes and opinions.

Any discussion of how changing patterns in technology use are affecting opinion research begins with voters' increased reliance on cell-phones.

The need for sufficient samples of cell-phone-only households in surveys has been widely documented. While effective statistical models can compensate for a lack of cell phones in a sample, failure to take into account the appropriate number of cell phone users in a sample can lead to an underrepresentation of young voters and communities of color, most of whom tend to vote for Democrats and made the difference for Obama in key battlegrounds.

Republican pollsters have pointed to a shortage of cell phone interviews to explain some of their inaccurate polls in 2012.

Underscoring this point, PNA polling -- conducted with Grove Insight in 9 battleground states over the final three weeks of the campaign -- shows that 54% of respondents without landlines were voting for President Obama. Just 36% of these cell phone-only voters said they were voting for Mitt Romney.

Setting quotas for the number of cell phone-only households in each tracking poll was one reason why our tracking polls were among the most accurate of the 2012 cycle.

Harnessing new technology, however, is important for reasons beyond ensuring representative samples in polls. By reaching voters where they increasingly spend their time--on the Internet--researchers can more easily reach a broad swath of voters, and conduct more accurate qualitative research.

In September of this year, PNA worked with Keating Research to conduct a groundbreaking online survey of undecided Presidential voters in Western battleground states. In order to find a representative sample of 503 undecided voters across 4 states, PNA contacted over 4,500 voters to find out whether they'd made up their minds in the presidential race.

This volume of contacts would not have been possible via traditional telephone surveys without expending a vast amount of time and resources. The ability to survey a statistically-significant sample of this tiny sliver of the electorate allowed for a uniquely in-depth dive into who these voters were, and how they would make their decisions. This research effectively anticipated one of the key dynamics of the final month of the race, in which Romney was exposed as untrustworthy and shifty.

The research also suggested that undecided voters would choose their candidate late, and that--contrary to conventional wisdom--these voters wouldn't necessarily break for the challenger. Since election day, pollsters have acknowledged that last-second deciders didn't break for Romney as anticipated.

In addition to allowing us to contact a broader swath of voters, online research gives voters an opportunity to answer open-ended questions at their own pace, in the privacy of their own homes. That's why PNA--teaming with Benenson Strategy Group--used individual online interviews in conducting our nationwide research on attitudes women's health issues in 2011.

Using this system, PNA was able to identify 100 voters who had staked out moderate positions on abortion rights, and conduct private in-depth conversations with individuals about these sensitive topics. This approach to capture many personal thoughts and feelings from respondents that they may have otherwise been reluctant to share in a more traditional focus group settings.

These conversations were instrumental in informing our nationwide survey, which showed that views on abortion are far more complex than the simple pro-choice/pro-life dichotomy .While voters harbor complex and often conflicting views on the issue, the research showed wide consensus around the idea that decisions on women’s health should be made by a woman, her family and her faith, not government bureaucrats.

This frame was widely used by candidates and advocacy organizations to fight back against extremism on women's health throughout the 2012 cycle.

Tracking the increasingly complex, diverse and dynamic public opinion landscape in years to come will require keeping even closer pace with the changing ways that Americans are using technology. PNA is proud of its work developing in the latest technologies in 2012, and looks forward to continuing this work in future cycles.

Tags: PollingCell PhonesWomen's healthOnline researchTechnology

How voter suppression backfired for the GOP

Nov 9, 2012| By: PNA Staff

As Republican leaders consider the party's future in the midst of President Obama's resounding victory among African-American, Asian and Latino voters this week, it's worth considering how the GOP got here in the first place.

Although communities of color are growing as a percentage of the population, the Romney campaign bet on these groups staying home in 2012. Their belief was based on an erroneous assumption that these voters would be unenthusiastic about voting for President Obama (actually, they were very enthusiastic), but also by widespread efforts around the country to make voting more difficult.

These efforts to create barriers to voting disproportionately affected communities of color, particularly Hispanic and African-American communities.

As it turns out, however, post-election anecdotes from around the country are confirming what PNA research has shown for months: that these efforts to suppress the vote actually motivated scores of voters to come to the polls.

In late September, PNA conducted research across five battleground states (AZ, CO, FL, NV and NM) among sporadic, less-likely voters who lean Democratic. The goal was to find ways to motivate this group (which included a large number of Latinos, African-Americans and younger voters) to cast their ballots.

We tested over 30 different messages about the importance of voting, from single-issue appeals like women's health to broad arguments about economic fairness.

What we found was that one of most powerful messages across many different demographics was reminding people that their votes were important to counter the extremists who are kicking people off of voter rolls. PNA subscribers used this data in a variety of ways to inform their final direct voter contact operations.

What happened on Tuesday suggests that the right-wing effort to reduce voter turnout has backfired. Communities of color made up 28% of the overall electorate this year, up from 26% in 2008. Various exit polls show that President Obama won between 70 and 90 percent of Latino voters, and over 90% of African-American voters.

What's more, many of these voters endured obstacles like prohibitively long lines and the dissemination of misinformation in order to cast their votes.

As the Republican Party ponders how it now reaches out to the communities it has turned off this year, a good first step would be to stop trying to prevent people from voting. This is bound to backfire and push more voters to Democrats.